Reactions of the markets to verbal signals from strong financial this world - an everyday occurrence. When Ben Bernanke has started talking also potential turning of the program of quantitative mitigation, high volatility has come to the markets. Everything was in a fever, beginning from debts and finishing commodity derivatives. For example, capitalisation of the world markets of actions has decreased more, than by 2 trillion dollars. In the currency markets recently the dollar continues the offensive actions. A number of experts believe that head of FED tries to prepare the markets for hard times.
In recent months the markets stayed in an uncertainty condition. Undoubtedly, hearings about possible delay of intensity of the press of money of FED went, and it periodically was a reason for every possible speculation. At present level of QE are purchases on 85 billion dollars monthly. The history remembers the periods when transition to more tough monetary policy led to serious volatility and instability in the financial markets. Most likely, and the current situation will not be an exception as the markets accurately show the reaction to statements for change of a vector of monetary policy.
At the last meeting Ben Bernanke has specified conditions which are necessary to start toughening. And, it should be noted, this time speech of head of FED has been supported with exact and unequivocal arguments. All this could lead to premature expectations of fast correction of QE. Some experts believe that such treatment of statements of Ben Bernanke is a little erroneous. Also that, probably, volumes of purchases of FED will start to be reduced only in the end of the year. It was several times emphasised that information from a labour market of the USA will be a reference point for specific actions. In FED plans completely to stop purchases of bonds to the middle of 2014. It in case the unemployment rate will be reduced to 7 %.
Representatives of investment banks have declared that underestimated risks of the fast beginning of turning of the program of quantitative mitigation in the models. Now they should reconsider forecasts on financial assets and market risks. The question of stimulating measures has divided experts into two camps. One consider that fast toughening can lead to very negative consequences in economy and in the financial markets. Others, on the contrary, are sure that reduction of volumes of repayment of bonds is meaningful, but to approach to it it is necessary very accurately and consistently.
To what begun FED game will lead? Now very difficult about it to speak, as the markets very often are mistaken. The last years on the financial arena, including crisis 2008, became a striking example of market irrationality. Imbalances and high volatility is the markets in our century are famous for what.Social button for Joomla