Today at 22-00 Moscow time FRS will publish results of its two-day meeting. Afterwards by tradition Ben Bernarke will conduct press-conference. The whole intrigue is about expectations of contraction of the volume of taking out of bond. However, a range of professionals assume that statements after the meeting will be neutral and the markets will not receive any specific signals. There is little time left before the situation is cleared out.
AUD/USD demonstrates a pretty interesting long-term dynamics. The descent of the last 2 months lowered the quotations of Australian dollar for support of 0.9420, jumping aside from which the pair is trying to form deployment model. If AUD/USD can stay at this level, the probability of growth towards the upper border of the channel in the area of 1.0780 of the pair will increase. And if based on the meeting, the markets will receive a signal about the fact that FRS is planning to reduce stimulating measures, the wave of dollar growth can lower AUD/USD quotations down to the level of 0.7900. It corresponds to 61.8 % of 3-year growth which started in 2008. The main reasons for such quick weakening of the pair are slowdown of growth rate of Australian economy.
The increased volatility after the support of 0.9420 is visible on the daily graph. In case of deployment figures formation one may start looking for opportunities to play for ascent, placing protective stop orders lower than given level of support.
EUR/USD continues its ascending impulse. Now the pair has reached long-term line of resistance. The medium-term speculators should wait for signal for deployment and play for descent. The attempts of the pair to pass higher may lead to activation of stop-orders, which are situated higher than the line of resistance.
It is quite visible on an hourly graph how the EUR/USD is testing the above mentioned support. It is unlikely that we witness serious movement in the pair until the end of the meeting. Short-term speculators should wait until a safe signal for opening short positions. The aims of this potential descent of euro can be levels of 1.3111, 1.2800.