The last two weeks the markets get a large amount of information that could identify the medium-and long-term vector of currency movement. But as long as the participants do not rush to take aggressive positions. This limits the range on the major currency pairs. Despite the important data on the U.S. economy and the publication of results of the meeting of leading central banks, the situation in the foreign exchange market remained relatively calm. Apparently, at the moment dominated by technical factors.
EUR/USD is trading at the beginning of the European session neutral. After Friday's removal of short positions in the pair is consolidating near the 1.3280 mark. The volatility of the area is due to the fact that a little higher in the 1.3330 trend line passes. The passage of this line up could trigger a further closing of short positions on the euro and for some time to cancel the bearish scenario for the couple. If this risk is not implemented, then the dollar has every chance to attack.
The reason for the game to improve the dollar against the euro could be the story with the expectations of the onset of decline of quantitative easing at the September meeting of the FED. Recent macroeconomic statistics do not show a rapid recovery of the U.S. economy, but, nevertheless, in the opinion of experts, the small reduction in the probability of redemption of bonds before the end of the year is still high.
Short-term technical picture in the pair GBP/USD has a lot to do with the picture in EUR/USD. At the moment, the pound bulls are trying to overcome a local extreme in 1.53 . The output value above that mark is likely to result in an acceleration of short-term upward momentum, the objectives of which are the levels of 1.54 and 1.5550 .
Cross-rate EUR/GBP shows a short-term downward trend. At the moment the cross is quoting at the 0.8670 support level, the overcoming of which opens the way to 0.8600 . If the mark of 0.86 will not resist, the medium-term uptrend on the EUR/GBP is broken and the technical picture is neutral.
Among the stories that you should pay attention today, you can select a member of the FOMC statement, Richard Fisher in the U.S. session (11:45 - U.S.).
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