Last week was quite an active market for FOREX. A number of macroeconomic news brought volatility to the market. U.S. dollar up again lost ground against major competitors. The dollar index reached 81.50 in the downward momentum that began in early July, after Ben Bernanke slightly dampened investors. This week will be rich in important data that could lead to a radical change of emphasis in the market. On the courses of further monetary policy and tell the FED, the ECB and the Bank of England. Apparently, these two days (Wednesday and Thursday) will be decided mid-term fate of the major currency pairs.
It should be noted that the focus will not remain without such data for the United States economy, as GDP for the second quarter and labor market statistics. All this will greatly affect the course of monetary policy. While the situation is such that the FED would prefer to delay the start of reducing redemption of bonds.
EUR/USD gaining weight about 1 % in trading last week, reaching a high of 1.3296 . Currently the pair is trading in a narrow range of 1.3290 - 1.3256 . It's not excluded that in the two trading sessions prior to publication of the decision on the interest rate the FED dollar can grow up a bit. But, despite the risk of a technical nature, yet strong movements to the meeting announcing the results should be expected.
In that case, if the quotes pars will develop a downward movement, it makes sense to take short positions with the targets in the area of 1.2750, placing protective stop orders above the local maximum. Participants who are now holding open long positions in the European currency would be best to trail the stop as you move up the quotes.
If we compare the dynamics of the euro in pairs EUR/USD and EUR/JPY, it's obvious that all the strengthening of the common European currency is not due to some positive factors and expectations for her, and directly to the local dollar's weakness. The basic scenario is still a long-term growth of the U.S. currency. What is happening now can be attributed to align positions on the dollar because of the absence of clear signals from the FED. Thus, the markets are laid under that amount of foreclosures will remain at the same level for a long time. Consequently, any hint of a folding program QE, whether statements by monetary authorities or strong data on the economy, will spur a new wave of mid-term demand for the dollar.
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