Over the past week the dynamics of exchange was mixed. Since the euro exchange rate ended the week little change -0.04 %, although during the week EUR/USD pair was quite volatile. The situation is similar to the Australian dollar, which ended the week down by 0.14 %. Showed a positive trend British pound (pair GBP/USD) which added almost 1 %.

The European currency opened at 1.3330 currently trading slightly lower.

Important factors in the short term in EUR/USD will be:

  1. Statement of Intent ECB. ECB went on a desperate step - promised (albeit conditionally) to keep rates low for an extended period of time. Given the historical dislike of the ECB to the promises and commitments, it is difficult to say whether investors will take his word for it - especially if the economic data for the euro area will continue to improve. Thus, the spreads on short-term interest rates are likely to continue to grow in favor of the euro and the euro/dollar will be selected to the field of 1.30 . At this point, the ECB will intervene with a view to bring down the rate - in a word, or deed, for example, reduced the refinancing rate, or a new tool for liquidity.
  2. Traders are buying again euro/dollar. Large short positions on the euro/dollar, open during the acute phase of the European debt crisis, is completely eliminated, and now traders are buying again EUR / USD. Thus, the short-term risks are symmetrical, and the pair have a new opportunity for sale on the background of the coming cuts QE in the U.S. .

The British pound is reduced to around 1.56, where there is support. Further movement of the pound is difficult to define, but we can say that the fact that at the moment there is an upward trend for the pair GBP/USD and so you can expect the growth to the level of 1.5750 . When attaching the pound below 1.56, the next goal will be the level of 1.55 . It should be noted that the pound is quite sharp, and the graph we see that the trend line extends at an acute angle, which creates an additional risk of further growth. Most likely, we will see a small pullback before GBP/USD moves to new levels.

Australian dollar started the week in positive territory, and is already showing growth. The pair AUD/USD continues to trade in the channel, and most likely moves to the upper limit at 0.93 . Support for the Aussie is at 0.91 . Long-term growth for the pair AUD/USD still seems difficult, in order to continue the upward trend in the pair needs to consolidate above the 0.93 level, in this case, to be a mark 0.95 .

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