On Monday USD was getting cheaper compared to euro currency. Thus, pound sterling added 50 points to USD and it overcame the resistance of 1.6180, and it will most likely stay higher after the end of session. Which is a bull signal to buy GBPUSD pair.

The aim of the ascending movement of the pair GBPUSD is above the resistance of 1.6300, which is a strong resistance, since the pair is above this level since august 2011.

The upcoming week is the last active trading week this year. The Christmas and new year holidays are approaching. That is why next week might bring some surprises.

EURUSD pair consolidated above the resistance level 1.3140, which is the signal to continue the growth, which is restricted by resistance level of 1.3500.

GBPUSD pair was set against the local maximum 1.6180 at the end of the week. The conquering of this level will make way to resistance 1.6300 for the pair. The ascending trend on the pair still exists.

The most important even of the week is the deployment of dollar compared to euro currency. Namely euro currency (euro as well as pound sterling), since other currencies grew compared to dollar during the week. Thus, leading economies continue losing their positions on the market, while raw materials market and developing markets grow.

The development of EURUSD was very smooth. On Wednesday the pair couldn’t reach and pass the resistance level of 1.3140 and it moved downwards. (Now we are not talking about fundamental reasons of this movement, which was provoked by changes in the forecast of development of Eurozone by the central bank). A good fall on Thursday ended with finding local bottom on Friday, and the correction from it was made to current fall on Friday.

Since there aren’t any signals for deployment (and even for Н4), the descending trend is still the current trend for sales. Its potential for fall is reaching 1.2825, where the lower bound of trading diapason, that was actual in September-October, is. The signal for entering into sales (for those who are not in the market right now) will be a gap down at the opening.

After a month’s growth on Thursday December 6-th EURUSD fell abruptly. Before the fall there was a rebound from the level of resistance of 1.3140. The fall on Thursday supported the deployment, which was indicated at by “hammer” on Wednesday.

Now the quotations of pairs reached the area of previous consolidation, that can support the falling pair on Friday. Probably the level of consolidation will allow the pair stopping for a short break and might support it, which may turn the descending impulse into consolidation or even the deployment.

A good trend on EURUSD that started from 1.2660 will face a serious obstacle soon- resistance of 1.3140. Earlier (in September and October) EURUSD pair made two attempts to overcome this level of resistance, but both ended unsuccessfully.

First two trading days of this week were very successful for euro and the fast growth is continuing. However along with the growth the possibility of technical correction increases, which may be provoked by indicated level of resistance.

Last week was not easy for the marker. On Thursday the USA celebrated Thanksgiving Day and the exchanges did not work, which changed the trading patterns of Thursday and Friday was very prone to risk.

The “Black Friday” was also held on Friday in the USA. Probably its results (there is an increase in purchases from the last year) influenced the traders and investors’ ability to risk.

So what should one expect from next week? The negative factor for the market is lack of results on outcome of the negotiations of EU countries at the summit. The decision concerning the budget will be taken during next months, since the “providers” of EU can’t agree to spend their money on needs of others. This factor might change the ascending trend that developed last week.

Wednesday was ambiguous for forex and the tools were differently directed, but let’s take EURUSD pair, as the most popular and interesting one. At first at night there was a small rebound from the resistance level of 1.2825, and the bears started packing their portfolios with short positions, but during the day and at the end of the day EURUSD pair decided to test the durability of resistance level of 1.2825.

Last week USDJPY pair descended abruptly. We have warned about probable “misbehavior” of this pair and about the unjustified low interest in this pair among the traders. After a small consolidation USDJPY pair fired and continued its impulse on Thursday. On Friday along with the weakening of the dollar and the stop of the fall of share market in the US, USDJPY pair demonstrated more modest growth.

However the future of quotations of this currency pair isn’t clear. There are no technical obstacles for the development of the ascending trend, except for the custom among traders to buy yen. The pair passed the mark of resistance of 80.54 On Thursday , the breakdown was easy and quick, which says a lot about the strength of the impulse. Thus there are no reasons to think that USDJPY pair will not be able to function in the same manner for two more days. Certainly it will be illogical to exclude he short correction. However one should sell something that is obvious, which is the growth.

Two working days of a trading week are over. They were pretty boring but at the same time interesting for Forex market. It is high time to make changes in trading strategy on several tools.

EURUSD pair made a stop in the descending trend, rebounding from support of 1.2660 on Tuesday. However according to classic analysis the stage of correction towards fall or renewal has to start now. Candlestick analysis is another indicator of that, since the candle from Monday has a very tiny body which means that on Monday the trading was even. Tuesday was more volatile but the descend at the beginning of European session ended in renewal at the end of the day. Thus there are some premises for short-term deployment. The entry into long positions from 1.2700 is justified based on profit/risk. Since the aim of this beginning movement can be the level of resistance 1.2830, and the restriction of profits is very limited- the support of 1.2660.

The current situation on pound sterling based on two trading days does not look promising. GBPUSD pair could not find the support on Tuesday, however there were attempts to restore the quotations with the news. There is no signal for action for this pair. However taking into account the high correlation between GBPUSD and EURUSD pairs, one can assume that there is a possibility of appearance of the signal to buy on Wednesday. That is why one should not occupy any positions on GBPUSD pair until active trading on Wednesday.

Bad news from Eurozone do not allow euro to compete with dollar, as pound sterling does. Yesterday’s attempt to break down the resistance of 1.2830 failed, since all the hopes for the recovery of quotations of European currency were destroyed by ECB president M. Dragi with his not so positive speeches and high unemployment in the region (approximately 11,5%) and a huge unemployment in Greece (24,5 %) and Spain (24,8%).

On Friday growth in dollar as well as fall of share markets have occurred in the US. There are many reasons for that: ambiguous report on jobs in the US, upcoming presidential election, that will take place on November 6. Unfortunately it is hard to foretell the reaction of the market. However if we forget about fundamental reasons and look at the technical outlook of the market, then everything is clear.

The dollar continued the descending trend. EURUSD pair stopped at a support level of 1.2830. This is the third similar instance at this level, and if the price can break it, then the consolidation that has been active for 2 months will stop, and one may sell EURUSD for a long time.

Pound sterling looks stronger and the price lowered only inside the consolidation, there is a long path to the renewal of the minimum.

The trading week happened to be confused, currency pairs moved in different directions during the trading week because of expectations of the news from regulators (the ECB president Dragi’s speech and FRS meeting). However FRS meeting didn’t bring any news. “Twist” program and extremely low rates will continue in the US. As it usually happens, the market moved a little bit before the news but the changes were minimal.

The whole background of trades can be determined as follows: lowering of risks, which is connected with lack of positive changes in Eurozone and there was a growth of dollar during the week. Thus EURUSD pair lowered the whole week and stopped at 1.2935, which is a little lower than sloping support, formed by two previous local minimums. EURUSD entered the 300-wide diapason.

That is why it is logical that at the beginning of this week one may expect signals to buy. A rebound may be expected from sloping support at approximately 1.2950, and formation of rebound model on Monday, since there is already a doji-candlestick on Friday. The aim of sales can be the upper bound of the diapason- which is 1.3130.

Last week there was a deployment towards dollar of all currency pairs, which stopped the decrease in value.

This week it will be wise to trade “for dollar”, since it grows on all positions. For example EURUSD. The pair could not break down and renew local maximum on Wednesday, as many traders wanted. At the place of a breakdown it went down and is trading now lower than the secondary support of 1.3044, which became resistance. The opening of short positions may be realized immediately after market opening and the appearance of signals to trade: the rebound from the level of resistance 1.3044 or the renewal of minimum of last candlestick. The risk should be eliminated to 1.3050-1.3070.

Pound sterling is close to local minimum, which may support the island currency, especially because the pair actively descended for recent two days (Thursday-Friday). So despite the weakness of pound sterling traders’ purchases may appear at this level, those traders hoping for deployment. It makes sales with market openings less attractive, especially because GBPUSD pair is developing in the channel now, to the lower bond, with a small cruising range. Thus if there are open short positions, they should be held with instantaneous fixation of profits, with hints to rebound or quotations deployment, but it’s better to wait with opening of new ones, since the risk is too high.

First two trading days turned out to be differently directed on Forex market. If on Monday dollar grew in comparison to all pairs, then on Wednesday everything was different and the fall of dollar, especially to European currencies was significant.

Thus EURUSD pair grew by more than 100 peeps and achieved the last maximum- 1.3050. The impulse of movement was very strong and with the update of local maximum on Wednesday the growth of quotations of EURUSD pair has to continue, since the pair drew the deployment shape of “double bottom”, which does not exclude the consolidation.

GBPUSD pair is set against the resistance too which is at 1.6130. The situation similar to EURUSD; the growth will occur after breaking down this resistance. However recently pound sterling looks weak in comparison with euro and dollar, that is why it is useless to count on it, and the correlation with EURUSD movement requires excluding it from the portfolio.

Traditionally before opening new trading week we conduct a little analysis and prepare to possible surprises from the market.

So let’s start with the EURUSD pair. Last week we saw a beautiful deployment within classic candlestick analysis (from Wednseday to Thursday), and we have a question now: will the growth continue this week? Friday made it clear that bulls in second half of the day started to fix the profits which led to losing EURUSD positions. Thus there will be attempts to push the quotations down on Monday. But because there is no signal for sales, one shouldn’t sell. And for same reason one shouldn’t buy during first hours of trade. Thus Monday will be decisive for choosing tendencies for a week.

Pound sterling looks more confident but not too much. The situation is almost the same as with euro, so it is advisable to stay out of the market. Just yet.

The US dollar continued to ascend on Tuesday, which was supported by ECB president Mr. Draghi’s speech who did not calm the markets down and did not make the Eurozone politics clear.

The GBPUSD pair continued its lowering. The descent of the pair was very active on Monday and on Tuesday, which led to the breakdown of psychologically important level of 1.6000 and of consolidation of the price lower than this level. The descending trend of GBPUSD has a potential for developing to the support level of 1.5915. However it is dangerous entering market with current situation. One should wait for the recoil.

The European currency doesn’t look better than its island opponent and has been falling for two days compared to dollar, leveling the growth of last week. EURUSD reached the euro consolidation zone on Tuesday, which might detain the fall for a couple of days, However it is better not to go out of the short positions, since there aren’t obvious signals for slowing the descent of euro relative to the dollar.

The first week of October was ambiguous. Something grew, something fell, but one thing is clear: there is not a trend of development of the market. And even the fact that on Friday the quotations of EURUSD grew up to 1.3040 on closing due to the news from the US, it is too early to talk about the continuation of ascending trend, so do not rush to buy.

The euro situation is difficult. Current growth was predicted technically, but fundamentally euro should cost less, that is why the purchases from current levels will have higher risks. In our opinion it is the right time to go out of the long deals and not vice versa. However one should not be sure about the descent of quotations. That is why one should wait for signals for sale on Monday. Sales on EURUSD have high potential of profits.

Gold tried to break down the resistance level of 1790 last week, however several peeps were missing, in order to establish higher than the indicated level. That led to Friday descent of quotations of the data from the USA. This week the gold may continue its slow descent, however it is dangerous to trade with it, since this asset is an asset- asylum for the market, and if something happens the gold can go up at once. So do nor sell it yet, and even if you sell it only with short stop loss.

During three days the market did not decide which side it is on: bulls or bears. Maybe it made a decision. Let’s consider particular cases.

So popular pair EURUSD went into side consolidation without specific price tendencies. The attempt to continue the correction was not successful as well as attempt to renew the growth. And as a result we see the disorder and fluctuation of quotations in a certain diapason.

It is still early to take up any position, one should wait for an adequate signal.

Pound sterling broke down actively the level of support of 1.6130, which was a signal for continuing the descent of GBPUSD pair. If you could not enter short position on Wednesday, it is pretty dangerous to do it now. If one enters now he should put stop loss higher than a current candlestick, higher than 1.6140. The impulse is good and the pair was trading almost without shifts towards main direction.

Last two days of last week brought a chaos to the market. Let us not go into analytical details that would explain such behavior, we are just stating the obvious. On Thursday the market was persuading us that the correction towards ascending trend is over, and on Friday as if it recovered its wits it went down.

Now it turns out that EURUSD pair gave us full opposite bear absorption, but without updating last day’s minimum.

 The price refreshed its minimum on pound sterling, but it came back to the opening price on Thursday, which does not make a bear absorption of Friday complete.

Bad news on US gdp for 2-nd quarter of 2012 that came on Tuesday (1.7 % growth was expected but it was just 1.3 %) stopped the raise of dollar. On Thursday markets were not giving reasons for sales, beat all the traders and there were signals of continuation of ascending trend on many tools. Yesterday there were indicators of changing the direction of movement.

Thus the turning candle formation with a hummer down was formed on AUDUSD pair, which means the end of correction.

A bull absorption was formed on EURUSD pair which is another signal for turning upwards.

There is similar situation on pound sterling against dollar. Only growth of pair GBPUSD is restricted by the resistance of 1.6300, which has to be overcome before the continuation of development.

Today it is Wednesday but the market reminded more of Friday. Our prognosis on the continuation of ascending tendency was correct, and the verdict of German court about the possibility of ESM ratification with restriction of Germany participation in this action of generosity within 160 billion euros only helped the ascending trend in the morning.

However after the lunch a day deployment occurred and all the assets were won back. We will not be looking for the reasons of the deployment, we will just accept it.

As a result the majority of the markets saved the positive result of the day, which does not cancel the ascending trend.

On Monday we saw moderate corrections on main forex tools following the Friday active growth. On Tuesday the ascending tendency continued.

The impulse was strong again. The local extremums were renewed on EURUSD, pound sterling, the Australian dollar.

Thursday and Friday of last week turned out to be very positive for all risk risks. Friday was especially successful for bulls, because all the risk assets went up ceaselessly, saving its positions until the closing of markets.

The reason for such a positive drive is the change in unemployment rate in the USA. Thus it dropped from famous 8.3% to 8.1%, which significantly cheered up the markets.

As it happens usually with good news from the USA, the dollar dropped to risk currencies, this paradox is being investigated by thousands of analysts, that might find many reasons for such strange phenomenon.

Eurodollar broke down triumphantly, the level of resistance of 1.2660 on Friday and on closing of tender was quoted as 1.2815, which has not occurred since May of this year. Thus summer descent of euro is over and one should expect the development of ascending trend.

However for those who are out of the market a serious problem of choosing the exit point into long positions still exists. The problem is that the Euro trend kept unfolding and broke down upwards, and now it is not clear whether the technical correction downwards occurs or not. To enter with current quotations means accepting high risks for stop-loss, to wait for rebound for entry means probable losses of potential profits. Unfortunately there is no single answer.

On Wednesday quotations of EURUSD pair broke down the level of support of 1.0225, thus they destroyed the hopes of bulls for stopping this unfailing fall. Yes. This year Australian dollar is showing enviable trendability which does not give traders chances to trade against the trend.

After the fall of support it is possible to accrue to short positions and to tighten the profits gradually. The nature of the trend allows doing it without any efforts.

The next level on which the trend will be tested is the level of support of 1.0100. And since there are several days needed to reach this level, Australian dollar traders-sellers may say good bye to Friday and begin the weekend right now.

Monday, September 3rd was an exit in the USA dedicated to Labor Day, hence Monday was not the most active trading day, that is why it is advisable not to erase it from graphic analysis, since because of the losses of liquidity on markets the data was not reliable.

That is why it is recommended to look at the trading analysis only on Tuesday.

GBPUSD pair was not able to break down the resistance of 1.5913 (previous maximum) on Monday-Tuesday and is building a graphical figure of deployment of the trend “Double Top”. At the lowering on opening (the beginning of European session) on Wednesday it will be possible to sell the pair with the stop higher than a resistance level (1.5913). If a signal “Double Top” will be confirmed, then the aim of the descending movement will be the level of 1.5750. If the pair goes into consolidation, the sales will need to be closed for a while, until receiving the signal.

On Friday the markets were under the influence of Ben Bernarke’s speech about a possible new round of quantitative easing, which determined the dynamics of quotations in the second part of the day on all of the instruments.

Thus EURUSD pair made an attempt to break down the current trading diapason, but at the end of the day the quotations were not able to linger higher than the border of the diapason and the following week the pair will begin in the diapason which means that there is no signal for buying yet. It is worth being careful with purchases, since a fake Friday breakdown might be an indicator of deployment of ascending tendency.

One of the instruments that demonstrated a strong reaction to Benarke’s speech was gold. That literally broke down the resistance level of 1677, and the quotations of which closed far from it. People who did not make any attempts on Friday may wait for the correction on Monday-Tuesday, which may occur.

Recently a EURUSD pair has been trading in a pretty narrow price range 1.2460 – 1.2580. Despite serious economic news from the USA on Thursday (FRS meeting and Ben Bernarke’s speech), Euro did not demonstrate any serious dynamics as reaction to these events. But the American share market descended quickly and kept descending during the whole trading session.

This excessive tranquility of EURUSD pair has to finally turn into a dynamic breakdown of the diapason. That’s why it is recommended to trade for a breakdown of the diapason and not for a rebound inside the channel.The breakdown direction is not clear yet.

On Tuesday the markets were acting without any serious economic and political news, which was reflected on growth of risk currency that are euro and pound sterling.

The lack of serious negativity and no positive macroeconomic data gave a positive push for finishing a short-term correction on EURUSD and GBPUSD pair continuing the ascending trend, that was observed until the middle of august.

As a EURUSD pair reestablished its positions and at the moment of closing trading session the quotations reached the level of 1.2570. However it is still lower than a local minimum, which was three days ago on a level of 1.2585. Thus it is early to discuss a continuation of ascending trend, one should expect the renovation of maximum.

After breaking down the level of resistance of 1.2320 on Friday (which has turned into support), the EURUSD pair wasn’t able to stay higher than this measure. On Tuesday and Wednesday there were low volatile trading days on EURUSD pair which led to two doji-candlestick formation, that embody inner struggle of bears and bulls on market.

Today the quotations have descended down to support level of 1.2320.

The bad news from Eurozone do not let Euro stabilize higher than the level of 1.2320. Thus yesterday the credit rating of Greece was lowered down to «ССС», the bank of Great Britain reviewed expected indicators towards decrease, the export of France is unprofitable and Germany refuses to enter single Eurobond, which would be under control of Eurozone.

Today the US FRS meeting of two days is ending and the first commentaries on results of reports of regulators are appearing.

The chances of getting positive news from across the ocean were very low and the markets started corrections towards a small previous growth. The pessimism of the market was justified, for instance during the meeting of FRS nothing new was declared (until a detailed deciphering was available). The difficulties of financial sectors were mentioned once more, as well as inflationary policy and unemployment, the basic rate of interest of 0.25 % stays the same the real estate market does not develop and there are many risks for world economy development, that additional measures for stimulation would not be taken, and the old program “ Twist Operation” will function until the end of 2012 without any changes.