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Bidding on Monday were mixed. Economic data was played against the dollar in favor of the pound and the Australian dollar. The British pound as expected, grew up and was fixed above the level of 1.53 . Positive impact on the pair GBP/USD had a PMI output index in the service sector, which was better than analysts' forecasts. Recall that we expect a further decline of the pound against the dollar, we believe that the increase in GBP/USD is limited by resistance at 1.54 and downside risks still predominate in a given currency pair. The immediate goal for the pair GBP/USD rate is 1.5270, the next target will be the level of 1.5100 .

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Over the past week, the U.S. dollar was feeling confident against other currencies, but report on the labor market on Friday, the dollar has seriously shaken. So at the end of the week EUR/USD pair almost did not budge. Most of the losses of the euro was able to play on Friday. The pair of almost 100 points, and in just a few minutes. From a technical point of view, we continue to see a sideways trend for the pair EUR/USD with the boundaries of 1.32 - 1.33 . It's worth recalling that the downward trend line passes through the 1.33 level in the euro area is closed. We expect a decline in the euro this week with the immediate goal of 1.32, on a break of this level will open the way to 1.30 .

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On Thursday, the dollar rose significantly against the euro. One of the main factors contributing to the growth of the U.S. currency was a report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The PMI for the manufacturing sector in the United States July rose to 55.4, a value above 50 indicates expansion of industrial activity. The volatility of the pair also provoked statements of the ECB's Draghi. He said that the base rate of the European Central Bank at 0.5 % would not go up, at least until 2014.

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On Tuesday, during the trading U.S. dollar rose against the euro, thereby continuing strengthening. The EUR/USD closed the trading day at the same level at which it was opening day - 1.3260 . On the daily chart shows the pair remains in a tight range with the boundaries of 1.3300 - 1.3250 . Such dynamics proves once again that market participants expect the FED and the ECB speeches, and yet refrain from any action.

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The new trading week will be busy, traders can expect heavy traffic and increased volatility in the markets. The economic calendar is full of important news and economic data, which will undoubtedly be the determining factor in the movement of the market. At this point in the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure. This week is how to reverse the trend of the dollar to weaken and strengthen it. Market participants will take positions based on economic data, some of which is from the United States - a decision on the discount rate and the accompanying statement of the Committee on the Federal Open Market on the part of the Euro zone, similar information - press conference by ECB interest rate decision.

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Week draws to a close and we can take stock of trading on the foreign exchange markets. This week the U.S. dollar continued to weaken, the initiative seized the riskier currencies, the reason for this, of course, is the ever-increasing market confidence about the imminent decommissioning program of quantitative easing.

The EUR/USD this week managed to grow to 1.33 area, but apparently the market does not have enough power at the moment to overcome this level. At the end of the week, many traders take profits and exit positions, so in the last hours of trading European currency is likely to trade below 1.33 dollar. The momentum needed to break through the resistance may occur during the U.S. session, but such a scenario is likely to be postponed until next week. The nearest support level for the pair EUR/USD is at around 1.32 . The trend for the pair remains bullish.

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Wednesday evening, the U.S. dollar rose against major currencies after strong data on manufacturing activity and new home sales. As the results of studies in July preliminary index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector rose to 53.2, up from 52.2 in June. At the same time, the results of last month new home sales rose markedly, reaching a five-year high at the same time, increasing the likelihood of an early economic recovery. According to the report, in June, sales of new homes rose to a seasonally adjusted 8.3 %, reaching a level with 497 thousand units. We add that this was the highest since May 2008.

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During the trading session on Tuesday, the European currency rose against the dollar after weak data on the Richmond FED manufacturing activity. Report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (FRS - Richmond) showed that the producers of the central Atlantic region of the U.S. this month reported a decline in activity. Calculated by the Federal Reserve - Richmond index of current business conditions in the manufacturing sector in July fell to -11 from 7 in June, and the June value was revised downward. The index values ??below zero indicate a decline in activity. Meanwhile, the Eurozone came positive data on consumer confidence, the value of the index fixed at -17 and -18 analysts had forecast. Although consumer confidence remains in negative territory, the dynamics for growth also supported the euro.

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The past week has been winning for most currencies against the dollar. The Australian dollar closed at 0.9170 mark, although on Wednesday almost reached 0.9300, the growth of this week was 1.61 %. Weekly result of the euro is not so high (0.60 %), but nevertheless the pair EUR/USD has been the focus of traders largely due to economic data, which was enough.

The currency pair EUR/USD traded kept, the range is between the 1.3000 - 1.3200 continues to dominate the current market situation. If you look at the performance of the greenback, you'll find that over the past week, he basically continued to weaken. But the pair EUR/USD is not so distinct, the reason for this lack of positive factors for the growth of the euro, and even such catalysts as good economic data is not in force to provide the necessary support for the euro. Eurozone indicators remain weak, investors and traders see it, the downtrend in the euro reflects the state of the economy. The European currency close to a tipping point, which is located at the intersection of the descending trend line and the line at the level of 1.3300 . We are looking forward to further developments, but determined to sell the pair EUR/USD. Now even the 1.3200 level seems insurmountable for the euro to sell from this value - it means to get a deal with a lot of potential, but little risk.

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The EUR/USD rises during Tuesday's session. This was facilitated by the economic data for the euro area, as well as the expectation of my head of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke held today. Markets expect that he will be able to shed light on the future of the program to purchase assets, as well as their timing. Economic sentiment in the euro zone data showed, improved to 32.8 from 30.6 the previous value. Markets had expected a more modest increase. Indicator for the current economic situation has also improved and now stands at 74.7 points. It's worth noting that interrupt the growth of the European currency could not even positive U.S. data on consumer prices and industrial production. The pair EUR/USD continued to the level of 1.3172, the immediate goal is the level of 1.32, which is a strong resistance. Traders should be cautious before Bernanke's speech, as his speech can have a powerful effect and the euro could change dramatically in either direction.

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The EUR/USD opened slightly higher at 1.3080, but immediately began to lose ground, falling progressively. This week, the pressure on the European currency should be maintained, and we expect the EUR /USD pair is trading below 1.3000 in the near term. The upward movement of the currency pair is limited to resistance at 1.31 and 1.32 . Trading on Monday may be very volatile due to low trading volumes, so it's sensitive to the opening of positions. EUR/USD can also show the trading range for the week, but the move below 1.3000 will indicate the resumption of the downtrend for the pair and will give a sell signal of the European currency.

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The EUR/USD during the trading session on Thursday declined. The euro exchange rate began to fall back from their maximum values achieved after comments from Fed chairman Bernanke. The focus of the players was a weekly report on the U.S. labor market, analysts forecast a decline in applications for unemployment benefits. However, the report of the Ministry of Labor showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose and reached 360K. And although the data were worse than expected, released the report has increased the pressure on the single currency, EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.3005 . Not having enough strength to this level is broken, the dollar began to lose its positions. By the end of the pair EUR/USD was trading at 1.3100 mark, which apparently will be playing the role of resistance in the near future, support is at 1.3000 . Important news for couples today will be the publication of data on industrial production in the euro zone, analysts predict the declining trend.

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Sometimes come true, even the most unimaginable forecasts, trading on Thursday began with the fact that Bernanke's speech on Wednesday resulted in the strongest sell the U.S. dollar. Such a strong reaction to his speech, most likely, not expecting anyone. The currency pair EUR/USD began a sharp rise after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said there was risk in the U.S. economy and persistent high unemployment have signaled thereby that the imminent reduction in the amount of QE3 may not be, per night the pair reached the level of 1.32 . In the previous forecast, we expect that the correction in the euro could reach that level, but not at such short notice. Now we need to look at the European currency to a new height. Despite the weakening of the dollar, we still believe that the upward movement of EUR/USD will be limited to the level of 1.32 . EUR/USD has not met resistance in its path breaking level of 1.30 and 1.31, but the level of 1.32 in our opinion was the first and last level which could reach the European currency in the near future. Low economic activity and domestic problems the euro area point to the weakness of the euro, and the long-term downward trend we believe is important.

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On Tuesday were subdued by the majority of currencies is still moving sideways, with the exception of the European currency. The euro fell to a 3-month low against the U.S. dollar. The reason for that was representative of the ECB's comments about low interest rates. Governing Council member Joerg Asmussen, explaining ECB President Mario Draghi made to them last week, said the ECB will probably keep rates low for more than 12 months. Asmussen also said that would not rule out another round of cheap credit. These statements have a negative impact on the euro and the currency fell sharply as investors are not profitable to keep the assets in Euro if the ECB does not intend to raise rates. Later, however the ECB acted with objections as to the timing relative to the course of action guide monetary policy.

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During the previous week in the foreign exchange market the U.S. dollar showed a significant increase, against almost all currencies. The biggest losses were British Pound (GPB/USD) and Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), also showed a decline in the euro (EUR/USD) and Australian dollar (AUD/USD). In the analysis of these currency pairs you can see an interesting situation, almost all of them are located near strong support levels. The three-week dollar strengthening logically suited to the stage of consolidation and correction is most likely the dollar may start exactly from these support levels. We believe that the long term trend of the dollar to rise does not change, but, nevertheless, now the market looks as if he needs a break, if he plans to move on.

The European currency is near significant support at 1.2800 . On Friday, the pair EUR/USD failed to fall below this level. At present, the euro looks very vulnerable to the dollar, but as long as the level of 1.2800 fails decline in the euro will be difficult to roll back the level of 1.2800 could end up increasing the value of 1.2900, where bears with new force could come into play. In the event of a further strengthening of the dollar next goal for EUR/USD 1.2750 level will be - at least, that was made in April 2013.

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Trading on the foreign exchange market on Thursday held a press conference in anticipation of the ECB and the speech of the head of the bank Draghi. During the conference, Draghi said the ECB will keep rate soft policy and will do it as long as necessary. The European currency has reacted to this statement a strong reduction, increased pressure on the euro and the fact that Moody's has downgraded the ratings of three troubled Spanish banks. All of this eventually led down a pair of EUR/USD to 1.2880 level, reinforcing the downward movement. Support is at 1.2900 area did not allow the pair to consolidate below, the pair EUR/USD rebounded from the lows to the level of 1.2930, and then again began to decline. European currency is now in limbo, Draghi comments left a negative mark on the market, but at the same time reducing the currency is constrained by the level of 1.2900 . We believe that the EUR/USD pair will be some time to trade above 1.2900, next target is to roll back the level of 1.2950 . Since It's Friday, and this week the European currency fell well enough it's likely that many of the medium-term traders will take profits, this will surely have support for the euro and then we can expect a strong recovery up to 1.3000 . However, the basic mood of the pair EUR/USD negative and immediate goal in the medium term is the level of 1.2800, the territory of which the market has already came.

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The European currency is adjusted back to a level of 1.30 after the recent breakdown, downward pressure is constrained by market expectations of the ECB. ECB meeting should shed light on the future prospects of the euro, although we do not expect the ECB comments can change the overall downward trend in the euro, they can still provide temporary support to the European currency. It should be noted that Morgan Stanley analysts maintain a short position on the euro, while the EUR/USD pair dropped sharply after rising tensions in peripheral Europe. "Sustainable fall below 1.30 dollar now opens the way for the decline in the direction of our target level of 1.2800 dollars" - note in the bank. The weakness of the euro, and also indicates that the attempt to gain a foothold above the 1.30 level, though hosted on the closure of the day, but the movement stopped in this area. If after report ECB pair EUR/USD will overcome the level of 1.31, then we can talk in the possibility of reaching the level of 1.32, at which we believe will begin selling the new active.

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Before the opening of U.S. markets, it is possible to observe the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other currencies. Since EUR/USD pair dropped to support at 1.30, this support does not always display their strength, and at the moment it will be a 4 dollar attempt to break it. Do not forget that the market moves in waves, a sharp increase in the dollar has pushed hard enough a couple of down, so we believe that before the euro starts to fall again, rollback should occur. The basis for this rollback just might serve as a level 1.30. Treyderam should closely monitor the movement of the pair near this level and the need to act - to open short positions if the euro will fall below the support level of 1.30 or buy the currency at current levels to 1.31 .

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During the trade on Thursday investors’ attention was directed at American data which turned out to be better than predictions. It provided some support to dollar and EUR/USD pair again dropped to the level of 1.30, where it can now be observed a strong support is. European currency retreated from minimal value after checking the strength of level of 1.30 and began to from a new rebound. The closest aim is still the level of 1.3080. Today on Friday one should not forget about the fact that many medium-term traders and investors will begin fixing profits which can influence positively the EUR/USD pair.

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Currency pair EUR/USD during auctions on Wednesday was in a negative zone. European currency continued its fall even after publication of negative data on gdp from the USA, which instead of mentioned 2.4 % dropped to 1.8 %. Nevertheless, the investors decided to ignore economic data and euro sales continued throughout the day. From technical point of view EUR/USD pair reached its closest aim of 1.30, but without being able to break the support it rehabilitated from minimal value close to the end of the day. At the moment one may see technical rebound from the level of 1.30, but the growth is rather weak and most likely EUR/USD will try to consolidate lower than 1.30, thus continuing the descending trend, the growth of the pair will be restricted by the previous maximum which is at the level of 1.3080, achieving this level will be a good point of entry for sales. Today is full of statistics from the USA and Europe and this data will probably influence the market mood during the day, especially important news will be requests for unemployment benefits and unfinished deals on home sale.

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European currency after fall on Tuesday during the session is now in a hanged position. Currently the pair is heading towards the support at the level of 1.30. Market participants today will expect the news form the USA, to be more specific gdp data. Due to latest events we have reasons to think that the numbers that come out on gdp will be better than analysts’ prognosis, and they will support American dollar and will give strength to its growth. EUR/USD pair in this case can drop lower than 1.30 which will open its way to the level of 1.28. Otherwise the negative data on gdp of the USA can return the pair to the level of 1.32, where the significant resistance is situated.

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The currency pair USD/JPY continued to grow confidently during the session on Thursday, the US dollar has grown quite well against all the currencies. However, after the growth to the level of 98 the pair USD/JPY met significant resistance, and the market stepped back from maximal value. In this area the traders will meet a little resistance, because the daily candle could not close higher than the level of 98, which is a technical level of resistance. However, I do not expect this to become a resistance of big value and it will provide a good possibility to buy.

With the route that Japanese market of government bond fund has chosen it is hard to say what can happen in the near future. However, we think that long-term perspective for this pair is aimed upwards, and while rates of interest are growing in the USA, Japanese bank is starting to buy more bonds. At the same time the difference between rates of interest should continue pushing this market upwards.

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Bernarke supported the dollar

EUR/USD pair continued descending on Thursday during the European session. The press-conference, as well as commentaries and responses of its participants landed strong support to American currency, despite the fact that Federal Reserve System made a statement about the beginning of closing the policy of quantitative easing later this year. However, the market has been expecting it, because the chairman of Federal Reserve System made a statement about the possibility of this outcome towards the middle of next year. Decrease or stop of the policy of quantitative easing frees the market from constant supervision and security on behalf of the USA.

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Will the descending trend on EUR/USD end?

EUR/USD pair has been falling for the most part of Monday. But it found enough support in the area of 1.33 to attract customers. The most interesting fact on graphs is that the market just formed 4 consequent hummers in succession, based on this level of support. Due to that we assume that the level of 1.33 will continue supporting euro. However if you look at the daily graph, one can bring strong arguments in support of line of fall of business activity on EUR/USD pair, which is passing the level of 1.34, and the descent of the pair confirms its existence. If the market can grow higher than that line of descent tendency, we assume that this market will become dangerous, and we will be able to see a rapid growth of euro.

We think that the catalyst to abrupt change of quotations towards a higher level will become the speech of chairman of FRS and words that he utters at the meeting later this week. If there is no word about ending the program of quantitative easing, there is a possibility that markets will consider this as "QE Forever", as they had done earlier and one can forget about US dollar. If that happens, euro will grow naturally.

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Euro is approaching the upper border of the descending movement

European currency dropped lower than 1.33 during the session on Wednesday, but the investors began to buy the pair EUR/USD, after which the pair suddenly grew higher than the indicate area. The level of 1.33 is now the support, and we expect growth to the level of 1.34 in the future, at the moment the pair has reached the level of 1.3390, now there is a consolidation on the market, because the level of 1.34 is a psychological level of resistance. The breakdown and consolidation higher than 1.34 will open a way for the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.35, and upper border of the descending long-term trend.

The fall line of business activity that was formed on a daily graph is a significant resistance. However, we do not think that the market will consolidate higher than this weekly trend line, because European Union many problems at the moment. If the Federal Reserve System does not give efficient solutions on ending the softening politics and does not consider such a solution in the near future, then the European currency will fall very soon. Moreover, one should be very concerned with the state of European stock markets. Right now MIB, IBEX, FTSE, and CAC look very vulnerable.

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Expect significant resistance near levels of 1.34.

For EUR/USD pair the session of Tuesday was successful, despite the fact that at the beginning the pair was lowering slightly, but as a result it closed higher than the level of 1.33. Even if you do not like Euro you should not ignore the fact that market is ascending and it is what a trader should know. With the break of maximum formed on Tuesday one should buy a pair and get short-term profits. As you can see we are singling out red lowering line of the trend which is based on long-term daily graph.

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EUR/USD – have had a long walk, so what?

The money on the table

All the commentaries of ECB about yesterday’s session seemed optimistic for investor, but they weren’t so. Now we are following the ascending trend abc, which is corrective movement in relation to previous bear impulse. In case of growth renewal a maximal value is expected at the level of 1.3350. In general a fall to the following boundaries is expected:

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The main levels of support and resistance of the pair of GBP/USD for Thursday, June 6 2013

Forex analytics

Yesterday pound sterling made investors happy by positive behavior, after publishing a range of news: manager index for PMI for service grew by 54.9 over May, when 53 had been planned earlier. As a result pound sterling remained between levels of 1.5301 and 1.5381, a possible point of deployment is at the level of 1.5352. now we are watching closely attempts of the pair to overcome the resistance of 1.5413, it is from this point that the growth is happening to the level of 1.5431, further 1.5442 and 1.5470.

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The trade on Friday reminded a real battle for the positions. Publication of a range of negative fundamental data of Eurozone and more optimistic US news helped to consolidate dollars and in euro descent. As a result the day ended in dollar growth by 52 points, the volatility of tradings turned out to be 114 points.

Federal bureau of statistics of Germany showed a decrease in sales in April by 0.4 %. New data about the unemployment in Eurozone reached another maximum of 12.2 %, when in March it was 12.1 %.

The situation is developing as it was planned by analysts. Preliminary valuation of Eurozone inflation in annual basis is ¼ %. ECB determined the aim level up to 2 %, so there is still time to make several effective decisions.

The mood on US market is still positive. That can be seen on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which grew to 84.5 in May, while in April it was just 76.4.

Analysis of technical situation: Now the currency pair is trading at the level of 1.3000, while it is making attempts to break down this resistance. Despite the fact that the trades are conducted in a positive mood, the bulls are the main players, the rate is still in low near 1.2837 and 1.2943.

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EUR/USD

Pic. 1. Daily graph

Currency pair EUR\USD is still under the resistance of levels of 1.3010 and 1.3075. Here we are watching the stabilization of 50-, 100- and 200-daily SMA. In that case one should expect the rehabilitation of descending tendency after passing the mark of 1.2745 and fall of the currency to 1.2660, where most likely the consolidation will be. If the bears take over the situation, a strong descent to the level of 1.2040 is planned.

The deployment of the market is considered in case of passing the barrier of resistance at the levels of 1.3010 and 1.3075 and the growth of currency pair to the level of 1.3200. Then a strong bursting and movement upwards to the level of 1.3710 is possible.

The main technical levels are: 1.3178, 1.3129, 1.3110, 1.3068, 1.3050, 1.2977, 1.2956 и 1.2917.

To open long positions is recommended with the rate 1.3068 and to close it at the level of 1.3110, further from 1.3130 to 1.3175. It is better to sell from 1.2975 to 1.2957, further from 1.2950 to 1.2917.

GBP/USD

Pic. 2. Daily graph

Currency pair is trading within the diapason of 1.5200. Investors make bets on currency growth to the level of 1.5300, this is how 50- and 100-daily SMA are placed. In case of positive developments there might be a steady growth to the 1.5600. Otherwise we are going to see the following situation: the lowering of currency to the level of 1.5000 to the level of 1.4830.